Data

Two datasets are published straight from the archive and refreshed on every build: the Vault (foreign seizures, with concealment methods) and the Tabularium (every forecast call, with probabilities and grades). Each is offered as CSV and JSON.

License. Released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) — reuse freely with attribution to The Cursus Publicus.

Stability. Schema version 1 (a schema_version field ships in every file). Each row's id is a permanent key — never renumbered or reused — so a citation stays valid. Any column change — an addition, a removal, or a rename — bumps the schema version, and the dictionary for each prior version is kept on this page rather than overwritten, so an older download can always be interpreted. Existing columns are never silently repurposed. Like the editions, the datasets are an append-only record.

Nullable fields. region may be blank, by design. It is derived from the country→region map built out of the published stories, so a call or seizure whose country hasn't yet appeared in a catalogued story carries no region until it does (or until it is tagged explicitly). A blank region is expected — not a malformed row.

Vault — seizures

Download: CSV · JSON

• id — stable, immutable primary key — cite this.
• date — seizure date (YYYY-MM-DD).
• edition — the edition (Roman) it was first logged in.
• category — one of the five mission areas.
• region — geographic region (blank if unresolved).
• countries — semicolon-separated.
• commodity — top-level commodity class.
• subtype — sub-commodity.
• quantity — as-reported quantity string.
• weight_kg — normalized kg when derivable, else blank.
• weight_basis — reported | estimated | blank.
• concealment — concealment method, when known.
• reliability — sourcing tier.
• headline — one-line description.
• source_url — publisher link.

Tabularium — forecast calls

Download: CSV · JSON

• id — stable, immutable primary key — cite this (NOT the display 'No.', which is a recomputed rank).
• edition — edition (Roman) the call was issued in.
• created — issue date.
• resolve_by — resolution deadline.
• topic — mission area.
• region — geographic region (blank if unresolved).
• countries — semicolon-separated.
• claim — the resolvable directional statement.
• probability — P(true) at publication — the value the call is GRADED on; never changes.
• current_prob — latest probability if revised by an update, else the original (display only).
• confidence — estimative word.
• watch_for — the counter-signal that resolves it.
• status — open | resolved.
• grade — HIT | MISS | NON_LIQUET | OPEN.
• market_source — prediction market, when aligned (e.g. polymarket).
• market_prob — market's snapshot probability at call.
• market_url — market link.