The Cursus Publicus — Intelligence from the Global Frontier

Acta

Acta — the record. Plain-language patch notes for The Cursus Publicus: the notable changes to the brief, the site, and the method, newest first. Small fixes and daily editions aren't listed; the daily record lives in the archive, and factual errata in the corrections log.

DateTypeChange
2026-07-05AddedPrediction-market comparison. Where a Watch Ahead call genuinely lines up with a liquid market (e.g. Polymarket), we now show the market's odds next to our own, track how they move over the life of the call, and score our record against the market's — a check on whether we beat the crowd, not just our own past words.
2026-07-05AddedCalibration on the Tabularium. Beyond the win/loss record, the scoreboard now shows, for each confidence word, how often those calls actually came true versus what the word claims — flagging where we run over- or under-confident. Those lessons feed back into how the next calls are written.
2026-07-05AddedA daily 'state of play' on each region and mission-area dossier — a two-to-three sentence synthesis of where that desk stands, refreshed every day instead of weekly.
2026-07-05AddedNamed-entity dossiers. Standing pages now exist for named organizations and public figures, not just countries, once they cross a coverage threshold.
2026-07-05AddedA daily health check for the pipeline — a watchdog that verifies each morning's edition actually published and emails an alert if it didn't, so a silent failure can't go unnoticed.
2026-07-05AddedA public corrections log: an append-only, in-the-open record of any material factual error found after an edition is published.
2026-07-05ChangedThe subscribe and feedback forms moved to their own address, subscribe.cursuspublic.us.
2026-07-05ChangedThe Tabularium ledger was redesigned — mobile-friendly cards, colored mission-area pills matching the brief, and the call itself brought forward as the focus.
2026-07-05ChangedCorrections now feed back into the brief. When a correction reveals a recurring factual or sourcing mistake, it's distilled into a lessons memo the brief reads before publishing — so the same error is less likely to repeat. This mirrors how graded forecasts already feed the next calls.
2026-07-05ChangedThe corrections page now shows what we changed in response to recurring errors, not just the errors themselves — the distilled lessons the brief applies before publishing appear beneath the corrections log.
2026-07-05AddedA visual dashboard on the Tabularium: an accuracy-over-time trend, a calibration curve (are the confidence words honest?), and the record broken out by mission area. It appears automatically as calls resolve — a chart of a handful of calls would only mislead, so it stays hidden until the record is substantial.
2026-07-05AddedBroader, more authoritative daily sourcing. Alongside the existing news sweep, the brief now pulls standing official feeds directly — Europol for seizures and organized crime; WHO, ECDC and CDC travel notices for disease outbreaks; WOAH for animal and agricultural disease; and UN ReliefWeb for disasters and displacement — so the most consequential items come from primary sources, not just news aggregators.
2026-07-01AddedThe Tabularium and the weekly Reckoning: every Watch Ahead forecast is logged as it is made and graded in the open on an append-only scoreboard — hits and misses alike, against the exact words used when the call was made.
2026-07-01AddedSource reliability tiers (Confirmed / Single-source / Developing) on every item, and a shift from hedged wording to directional Watch Ahead calls.
2026-07-01AddedThe public archive: every edition on the web, a searchable and filterable Catalogue, per-country / region / mission-area Dossiers with their own RSS feeds, and a two-host audio Podcast.