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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-05-02Open

The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen
Issued No. 5 · 5 Jul 26  ·  Due 4 Aug 26  ·  Opening call 82% — very likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%5 Jul 26 — 82% (No. 5): Opening calltodaydue 4 Aug 2682%5 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Any coalition strike on the named targets before August 4 would mark a real break from the ceasefire framework rather than posturing.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 4 Aug 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-05-02 — recorded 5 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-02.html