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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-04-01Open

Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window.

National SecurityCentral AmericaIranSaudi ArabiaYemen
Issued No. 4 · 4 Jul 26  ·  Due 10 Jul 26  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%4 Jul 26 — 65% (No. 4): Opening calltodaydue 10 Jul 2665%4 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Houthi strike on Saudi territory, airports, or vessels before the funeral period closes would mark escalation beyond posturing.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 10 Jul 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Saudi jets blocked an Iranian funeral flight; Houthis threatened a comprehensive response on airports and vessels as Khamenei lies in state.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-04-01 — recorded 4 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-04-01.html