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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-02-04Open

The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.

National SecurityCentral AmericaIranUnited States
Issued No. 2 · 2 Jul 26  ·  Due 31 Jul 26  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%2 Jul 26 — 65% (No. 2): Opening call7 Jul 26 — 40% (No. 7): Iran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping v…8 Jul 26 — 10% (No. 8): The crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, a…10 Jul 26 — 5% (No. 10): Hormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping r…todaydue 31 Jul 265%2 Jul 26

The record since

  • 7 Jul 26 No. 7 · revised to 40%
    Iran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping volumes keep recovering'; Brent reversed part of its post-ceasefire drop.
  • 8 Jul 26 No. 8 · revised to 10%
    The crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, and hours later U.S. CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian targets while Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver — the opposite of 'shipping volumes keep recovering.'
  • 10 Jul 26 No. 10 · revised to 5%
    Hormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping recovery.

What would overturn it

Ceasefire breakdown, tanker incidents, or a drop in Hormuz AIS/insurance volumes.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Jul 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire mechanism restores normal Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes, or whether the current partial reopening proves durable.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-02-04 — recorded 2 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-02-04.html