The Tabularium

Named for ancient Rome's tabularium — the state records office on the Capitoline, where the public accounts were kept. This is ours: every Watch Ahead call the Cursus has issued, graded against criteria fixed at publication and never removed — misses shown as plainly as hits. Calls are kept current as evidence shifts (you'll see the probability trajectory), but each is graded on its opening call — updates keep you informed, they don't relaunder the original.

22Calls rendered

0Resolved

22Open

0Non liquet

—Record

No calls have matured yet — the first verdicts are rendered at the weekly Reckoning. Until then every call stands open.

The Ledger

№	The call	Mission / Location	Issued	Due ▾	Confidence	Verdict
22	China maintains a recurring, rotating coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan (a replacement vessel on station within any 30-day gap) through early January 2027.	National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina	No. 5 · 5 Jul 26	5 Jan 27	Very likely 85%	Open
21	Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by December 31, 2026.	Illicit TradeAfrica / Middle EastIranYemen	No. 6 · 6 Jul 26	31 Dec 26	Likely 70% us 70% · Polymarket 60% was 72%	Open
20	The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.	Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionRwandaUzbekistan	No. 3 · 3 Jul 26	30 Sep 26	Likely 60%	Open
19	The European Commission grants a formal suspension or airport-by-airport flexibility of EES biometric checks before September 1, 2026.	PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union	No. 5 · 5 Jul 26	1 Sep 26	Roughly even 45%	Open
18	De la Espriella (inaugurated 7 Aug) will begin his pledged 90-day military crackdown on armed groups within his first two weeks in office (by 21 Aug).	Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia	No. 2 · 2 Jul 26	21 Aug 26	Likely 65%	Open
17	Peru's Fujimori government (inaugurated 28 July) will publicly signal continuity or warming of U.S. security cooperation by 15 August.	PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru	No. 2 · 2 Jul 26	15 Aug 26	Likely 60%	Open
16	De la Espriella will be inaugurated 7 August as scheduled, and Cepeda's threatened 'civil disobedience' will not materially disrupt the transfer of power.	PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia	No. 3 · 3 Jul 26	10 Aug 26	Likely 70%	Open
15	At least one additional EU member state beyond Italy, Portugal, and Greece formally invokes the EES biometric-suspension flexibility clause at its own border crossings within 30 days.	PartnershipsEuropeEuropean UnionItalyPortugalGreece	No. 6 · 6 Jul 26	5 Aug 26	Likely 60%	Open
14	RSF forces close el-Obeid's last open route (the eastern corridor) within 30 days.	Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan	No. 6 · 6 Jul 26	5 Aug 26	Roughly even 50%	Open
13	China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days.	National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina	No. 6 · 6 Jul 26	5 Aug 26	Likely 68%	Open
12	The IACHR will proceed with its 4 August hearing on Porras-era political-persecution claims as scheduled (not postponed or cancelled).	PartnershipsCentral AmericaGuatemala	No. 3 · 3 Jul 26	5 Aug 26	Likely 75%	Open
11	The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.	National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen	No. 5 · 5 Jul 26	4 Aug 26	Very likely 82%	Open
10	A further coordinated, multi-town attack (three or more towns in a single operation) attributed to the FLA/JNIM insurgency occurs in Mali within 30 days.	National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastMali	No. 5 · 5 Jul 26	4 Aug 26	Likely 65%	Open
9	The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.	National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States	No. 2 · 2 Jul 26	31 Jul 26	Likely 65%	Open
8	No actual PRC boarding of, or armed standoff with, a commercial vessel in the Taiwan Strait will occur by 31 July; gray-zone pressure stays below the kinetic threshold.	National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastChinaTaiwan	No. 1 · 1 Jul 26	31 Jul 26	Very likely 80%	Open
7	Venezuela's June-24 earthquake casualty/missing figures will be revised further upward and early cross-border displacement indicators will appear by 31 July.	Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela	No. 1 · 1 Jul 26	31 Jul 26	Likely 70%	Open
6	Keiko Fujimori's July 28 inauguration will proceed on schedule, with counter-narcotics and border cooperation continuing uninterrupted through the transition.	PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru	No. 4 · 4 Jul 26	29 Jul 26	Likely 75%	Open
5	The 20 July U.S.–Mexico USMCA round will conclude without a finalized rules-of-origin agreement; talks continue into a further round.	Illicit TradeNorth AmericaUnited StatesMexico	No. 2 · 2 Jul 26	27 Jul 26	Likely 75%reaffirmed 3 Jul 26	Open
4	Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones.	Illicit TradeNorth AmericaUnited StatesCanadaMexico	No. 1 · 1 Jul 26	27 Jul 26	Likely 65%	Open
3	The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.	Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan	No. 4 · 4 Jul 26	25 Jul 26	Likely 70%	Open
2	Paused U.S.-Iran Doha talks on the Strait of Hormuz will resume shortly after the funeral concludes, with the toll/fee dispute still unresolved.	Illicit TradeAfrica / Middle EastIranOman	No. 4 · 4 Jul 26	20 Jul 26	Likely 60%	Open
1	Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window.	National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranSaudi ArabiaYemen	No. 4 · 4 Jul 26	10 Jul 26	Likely 65%	Open

How the Account Is Kept

Criteria are fixed at publication. Every Watch Ahead call states its expectation, its window, and the counter-signal that would overturn it, in the edition where it appears. Those words are the resolution criteria; they are never revised.

The counter-signal is the trigger. If it fires within the window, the call is a Miss. If the expectation holds, Hit. Where the evidence cannot fairly decide, the verdict is Non liquet — the finding Roman jurors returned when a case could not be resolved — and it is excluded from the record.

Scoring. A hit counts one, a miss zero; non liquet is excluded from the denominator. No call is ever removed, renumbered, or regraded.

Confidence is logged with every call — in the brief's fixed confidence language (almost certain, very likely, likely, roughly even, unlikely…), fixed when the call is made. It is shown so the record can demonstrate skill, not a padded win rate: a wall of “almost certain” hits shows nothing, while called “roughly even” outcomes that land are where judgment shows. As calls resolve this is made explicit: the calibration table above reports, for each confidence word, how often those calls actually came true versus what the word claims (shown once calls have resolved), and past roughly thirty resolved calls a Brier score over the logged probabilities reduces it to a single number. Those readings feed back into how later calls are written.

Against the market. Where a call lines up with a liquid prediction market, its implied odds at the time of the call are shown beneath the confidence and tracked live (“at call → now”), and the record is scored against the market's too — a check on beating the crowd. A secondary lens: most calls have no aligned market, and one is never forced.