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No. II · Thursday, 2 July 2026
Illicit Trade & Economic SecurityIran

Strait of Hormuz shipping still suppressed as ceasefire implementation falters

What? Despite a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum meant to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran briefly reclosed the waterway on June 20 citing alleged Israeli violations in Lebanon. Analysts writing this week describe an increasingly interconnected maritime-security risk spreading from Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, with shipping volumes still well below pre-crisis levels and African economies absorbing much of the cost of rerouted trade.
So what? Simultaneous disruption at multiple global chokepoints would strain container-targeting resources at the major transshipment ports that reroute around them, and any durable shift of cargo away from traditional lanes could change where the highest-risk containers actually originate.
Confirmed · Sources: PBS NewsHour · The EastAfrican (June 27 – July 2, 2026)